Kenya's strategic bet to flirt with both the Eagle and the Dragon

In the political heat of 2022 polls, one government official wanted Chinese contracts with the Government of Kenya disclosed. China curiously kept quiet, and the disclosure never happened.

The race to State House had anti-Chinese undertones laced with talks of debt diplomacy. Rumours swirled on how Mombasa would be mortgaged like a certain port in Sri Lanka. It never happened. 

One would have thought with Kenya Kwanza (KK) in power, the Chinese influence would start fading. President William Ruto has visited South Korea twice in the last two years without proceeding to China. And he paid a highly publicised visit to White House last year and came home with a promise that a US-led consortium would build an expressway to Mombasa.

That was symbolic, US would countervail the Dragon on big projects. Not yet. 

Many interpreted President Ruto’s US visit as a coup, getting Kenya into US orbit after dalliance with China. But that was before President Donald Trump won a second term. Many would ask why our president is visiting China now, why not US and be a guest of  Trump? After all, both Ruto and Trump had evangelicals on their side on the road to power. 

Where does Kenya stand on her political, economic and cultural relationship with China and the West, read US? Is Kenya counting on its non-alignment legacy, strategic ambiguity or real politik?

Kenya was indirectly close to US before independence, through UK. I have not done enough research on how Americans viewed colonialism. Talking to some settlers, I know American cars were popular during the British rule, from Buick to Ford.

Some American socialites such as Alice de Janze made Kenya their home in the rolling 1920s with Happy Valley as their epicentre. One of Al Capone’s bodyguards, Stanley ‘Davo’ Davidson came to Kenya, too. Bristol Archives have his photo at Uplands in Kiambu in 1953 during the Mau Mau uprising. 

America’s vice grip on Kenya has been more socio-cultural, starting with post independent leaders studying in the US during the famous Mboya airlift. That included other East Africans. As British influence faded, USA took over. Remember made in England?

Trade was not the fulcrum of this influence because of distance; exceptions are planes and the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA). Curiously, Trade between US and Kenya is almost balanced. 

After independence, the Peace Corps followed. Should we add USAID? We can add movies and more Kenyans studying and immigrating to US including our fourth President who schooled at Amherst. Less talked about is the arrival of US religious organisations, mostly Pentecostals and Evangelicals. Remember the televangelists? They competed with British affiliated churches such as Presbyterian and Anglican.

Some argue American based religious organisations played the long game culminating in their ‘entry’ to our State House.

No political risks

Clearly US socio-cultural influence has been growing in Kenya. Socially and culturally we have been facing West. With this deep entanglement with US, when and why did we start facing East? Was it a good decision? 

Contrary to popular belief, Kenya started facing East during the Moi administration. We got Kasarani Sports Complex, for instance. But East Africa had faced East earlier—remember Tazara railway from Dar es Salaam to Zambia? What of Chinese admiral Zheng He who came to Lamu around 1418? Seen his statue at Mombasa SGR station? How come we hear less of him compared to Vasco da Gama?

It was during Mwai Kibaki’s  era that we faced East with both eyes. Kibaki, a Western-educated economist at the citadel of British elites, the London School of Economics. What did he know that we did not? 

Kibaki probably figured out that the Western system was not down to earth enough. Economic ideas, from free markets to Keynesianism are only great if actualised and felt by the hoi polloi. With ghosts of structural adjustment programmes still fresh, Kibaki  probably thought turning East would be less painful.

Why? The Eastern money has less conditionalities and is ‘visible’ to ordinary Kenyans. Roads, ports, stadiums are visible unlike soft issues like democracy, rights or even health. While this is construed as lack of transparency and debt diplomacy, it’s real politik. 

Kibaki and his successor, Uhuru Kenyatta, probably realised that Kenya’s dalliance with the East—China—carried no political risks. The vibrant private sector is seen as a bulwark against such political risks. That created space for government-to-government projects, which seems to be gaining traction within KK government.

Is Kenya building on the legacy of non-alignment during the Cold War era, with strategic ambiguity, sort of geopolitical and geo-economics watermelonism? 

How about President Ruto’s visit to China? He is visiting when the US and China tariff war is raging. Will the US construe that as support  for an ‘enemy’ or is Ruto so confident of his place in the West that he sees no risk dancing with the Dragon? 

It’s more than meets the eye; the Kibaki-Uhuru era left some economic poisoned chalices through debt and unfinished projects. Ruto has to carry them through. But it’s more than projects. UDA and Communist Party of China (CPC) have been talking. Is UDA learning how to monopolise power like CPC?  What does ‘swallowing’ of some parties by UDA mean for democracy? 

What did the suppression of Gen-Z demonstrations mean to freedom and democracy?  Which events in China and other countries mirror Gen-Z demos and the political aftermath? 

Long game

China’s socio-ideological inroads into Kenya are overshadowed by the West (including Europe). We do not know enough of China and her cultures despite Confucius Institute and Chinese-based TVs and radio. Chinese soft power is yet to catch up with the West. But the Chinese play the long game. Who thought by now China would be a factor in our national plans and discourse? 

It will take time before we are as deeply entangled with China as the West. But it’s slowly happening. One puzzle is how China and Japan got into our hearts without the soft path of religion.

Who has benefited from us facing East?  It’s hard to show a spike in Kenya’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth because of Chinese investment. The effect of such investment, donation or loans, takes time.  The economic dividends of SGR, Lamu port or Thika highway could even be felt in the next generation.

But no economist can deny Chinese influence, mostly economic has been felt by citizens, but without sufficient trickledown to the grassroots. The Western soft power easily percolates to rural areas through the media and projects closer to our hearts such as health.

What next?

Ruto will probably bring home some goodies; money to complete some projects such as roads, extend SGR and other ‘hard projects’. It’s another question if the money will be in form of loans, donations or grants.  The Belt and Road projects could get a new impetus. What of something to fill the void left by USAID? What would International Monetary Fund (IMF) say about the possible loans?

Can China bring some manufacturing ashore, as she did in Vietnam and South East Asia? That would be a dream come true. China benefited immensely from foreign direct investment after opening up in 1978. Why not us?

Can China use Kenya as an entry point into Africa‘s free trade area, not just for trade but investment? US gave Ruto a red carpet. He will get one in Beijing. We must ask, what is there for the rest of us? 

Kenyans want jobs and higher living standards. They may not worry much who can help them, whether it’s China, US or other countries. As things stand now, Kenya will make use of her two eyes; one facing West and the other East. 

The Western eye can see IMF, World Bank and multilateralism. And jobs in Europe to address demographic winter. We can’t forget the Western political and socio-cultural systems. Will US tariffs bring China closer to Kenya, seeking new markets, and new supply chains? Will Kenya benefit from Trump’s America First policy, as China takes over the slack left by US disentanglement with the rest of the world? 

The Eastern eye is more economic, and can see the Asian economic miracles. We have tried to replicate such a miracle through Vision 2030 and its variants from Big 4 to BETA.

To transform our economy we must turn both eyes and look inside ourselves; what we can do for ourselves before external support. Charity starts at home. It’s the hard truth from streets of Nairobi to the Great Wall of China, and the manicured lawns of the White House.